Help? Swell forecast for next weekend in South Clare

[simplywabs]

Need help. We are planning for a boat trip easter Saturday. What's the swell forecast for this coming Saturday?

Thanks a lot for the help.

[jw]

this far ahead a forecast is still highly unreliable, 48 hours in advance you will have a better idea

I like the synoptic charts at

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.html

also windguru

http://www.windguru.cz/int/index.php?sc=47735

a lot of these and similar sites are just front ends to the NOAA GFS model

The weather looks unsettled and the fishing probably will be tough.

[jd]

a lot of these and similar sites are just front ends to the NOAA GFS model

The weather looks unsettled and the fishing probably will be tough.

GFS is the American numerical model, and from what I can gather the European (ECMWF) model is ahead of it.

http://arstechnica.com/science/2012/12/ ... ath-first/

I don't know which swell forecast site use the ecmwf model.

[The Austrian]

You should be OK, no big swells or winds forecast and it looks perfect for your first trip of the year http://www.accuweather.com/en/ie/kilkee ... /327?day=8
temperatures still rather low so bring your own bait, don't rely on mackerel being around yet.
Tight lines!

[jw]

You should be OK, no big swells or winds forecast and it looks perfect for your first trip of the year http://www.accuweather.com/en/ie/kilkee ... /327?day=8
temperatures still rather low so bring your own bait, don't rely on mackerel being around yet.
Tight lines!

austrian, could i ask you what are you basing this advice on, ie how many times have
you been fishing in the area that justifies you offering an expert opinion?

[The Austrian]

of course you can John, I have my good friend Aidan at Shannon Airport, he is a meteorologist there since at least 15 years and he always supplies me with the latest updates when I ring him. I trust his expertise and he never has let me down.

[simplywabs]

Thanks for the responses. I am just confused now. Austrian seems to make me confident that its ok but the sites shows that Saturday has the highest waves roughly 4.5M.

[The Austrian]

hmm, looks as it has changed again over the last 48 hrs, I try to get in touch tomorrow and let you know.

[The Austrian]

Weather Forecast for Ireland from Monday, 25 March 2013 until Sunday, 31 March 2013:

ALERT for risk of locally heavy snowfalls and the certainty of unseasonable cold, frosts and icy roads at times from later today in north, to mid-week central and south, any snowfall most likely in parts of north Leinster and Ulster, possibly extending to midlands and south coast at times. ADVANCE ALERT for risk of wintry precipitation over the Easter weekend period, currently assessed as "moderate" or about 50-60 per cent likely as guidance is somewhat split on this outcome.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with cold east winds, some sunny intervals more likely in the west, some wintry showers including some accumulations of snow mainly in north Leinster and east Ulster (Meath, Westmeath, Longford, also Cavan, Monaghan, Louth) and by later today also near south coast and in Wicklow and Wexford. Amounts generally light but potential for 5-15 cm locally in streamers. Highs about 2-4 C, winds E 40-70 km/hr.

TONIGHT through THURSDAY ... The overnight hours will be bitterly cold all through the week, and lows could reach -8 C near snow cover in the north and otherwise near -5 C although closer to -2 C east coast and south coast due to the slight modifying effects of open water. Tonight, snow may continue in some places from developments this afternoon, watch for updates. In general, for overnight hours this week, some snow could develop at times mostly during evening hours continuing on from daytime developments ... The days mid-week will be very cold with about equal mixtures of cloud and sunshine although tending more sunny in the west, with greater risk of snowfall in isolated streamers near east coast, south coast and parts of Ulster. Amounts with these could at any time reach 5-15 cm in rather limited regions. Over time, Meath, Dublin, Wicklow, Waterford and inland southeast, east Ulster are regions most likely to see at least slight accumulations during the period. Details may change as we pick up indications of trough features or better short-term satellite and radar indications. We expect a similar outcome to that seen two weeks ago where one or two locations saw significant snow, quite a few saw snow without much disruption, and many (particularly west) saw just a few flakes in the wind or no snow at all.

FURTHER OUTLOOK for EASTER WEEKEND ... The outlook remains uncertain since model output ranges from continued cold with snow potential (in south mainly inland, central and possibly north), sleet or rain potential (in south), to dry cold, to other solutions that include gradual warming and showers. The most likely outcome based on a weighted blend of reliable guidance is for intervals of sleet or snow turning more to rain but only near the south coast for that, through the period. It should be noted that there is potential for a disruptive snow event in the mix, most likely on Good Friday and across inland south and east. We currently assess this risk at about 30% likely, with another 40% chance of light non-disruptive snowfall and/or sleet.

Any sort of return to more normal by then April weather appears to be pushed back to about the second week of April now. The culprit remains the very strong blocking high over Greenland and nearby parts of the north polar regions including a lot of northern Canada and far northern Europe -- all over that extensive region pressures are 20-40 mb higher than usually seen and while these pressures might not be that notable for any one location, the extent of them is unusual and is maintaining a frigid easterly flow almost around the hemisphere now (although it pushes well north in our time zone, so we are getting a more modified version of this severe cold, however, eastern and central North America are just as far into the deep freeze if not more so, for example south of Chicago there has been a foot of snow in the past day or two. Last year it was close to 27 deg C there.)

see more here: http://www.meteotimes.net/2013/03/insta ... d-for.html

Furthermore, please take into account that tide fluctuations are generally different here at full moon or new moon phases, and so are the wave peaks forecasts from 4-4.5m. This doesn't necessarily indicate bigger swells, unless strong winds coincide with strong opposite tidal flows, therefore these conditions would accumulates in higher swells but it all depends on the wind direction on the given day. Anyway, to be on the safe side and in aid of an enjoyable trip, make sure to check all the conditions the days in advance to your planed outing and do not risk anything unnecessary, especially not with your kids on board. Even when you might think it is save take all the necessary precautions, talk to your skipper the day before to confirm it is safe to head out and please, make sure that adequate safety gear is provided for for yourself and anyone you are responsible for. Have a pleasant trip and stay save.