Long range weather forecasts..?

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Eoghan
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Long range weather forecasts..?

#1 Post by Eoghan »

So im like a kid on christmas eve at the moment, just under 2 weeks to Kerry and Im trying to see what the likely weather will be. I know they usually cant tell ye whats going to happen tomorrow, but does anyone have a site thats not far off the mark with long range..?

As long as we dont get the tail end of a tropical storm or a very cold low pressure spell i'll be happy enough.
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Re: Long range weather forecasts..?

#2 Post by The Austrian »

I've learned from a reliable source (the guy is a meteorologist) the utmost time for a weather prediction you can depend upon are three days at maximum - everything else is guesswork and more than likely wishful thinking. Sorry about the bad news :P
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Re: Long range weather forecasts..?

#3 Post by Eoghan »

I heard the same thing myself..! I used to work with a guy who left to become one. Said 3 days is your lot. I have looked at a few and every one of them had different predictions. :-)
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Re: Long range weather forecasts..?

#4 Post by JPA »

It's the butterfly effect.

I've just learned from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect that it could have been called the "seagull effect" :D
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Re: Long range weather forecasts..?

#5 Post by jd »

I think they're getting more confident out to 5 days, but they would give a % confidence level. Not so sure the general public would be happy with that.
What I would do is look at charts from different computer models. If they are all fairly similar, I'd be a little bit more confident. 2 weeks is pushing it!
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.p ... &archive=0
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Re: Long range weather forecasts..?

#6 Post by Eoghan »

Yeah, looks like nothing I can do only wait a week and then take a look.
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Re: Long range weather forecasts..?

#7 Post by lugworm »

met eireann quoted that all weather forecasts are accurate up to 3 days.......anything after that is geuss work as mentioned above......
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Re: Long range weather forecasts..?

#8 Post by Deleted User 3488 »

Some folks advocate keeping an eye on the jetstream forecast.
If it is up over or above ireland it usually means nice settled weather.
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?acti ... ream;sess=
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Re: Long range weather forecasts..?

#9 Post by Eoghan »

Nice one.
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