Weather Forecasting

Methinks Met Eireann got it slightly wrong.
Watching the forecast on Sat (for Sun) they gave 40km winds in the southwest with 20km winds on the southeast.

Sunday was probably one of the better days of the year so far :x

10mph Northerlys swinging East and Dropping to Nothing here tomorrow, Me thinks I'll be fishing.

I make two weekends in a row they got it wrong. Was out yesterday around the ling rock, on the drift and holding bottom with a 5oz lead. Little or no wind out there.

When have they got it right, seriously :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

All joking aside, what is their accuracy rate like? I assume it is audited.
Is it improving, and how does it compare to their peers?
Eg uk met has this on their web site.
http://www.metoffice.com/corporate/veri ... ecast.html

jd

ARE YOU MAD :lol:
That would involve somebody taking responsibility!

I normally look at various sites and make my decision based on that, but I will always watch the forecast on RTE as well.

I wonder how much input the forecaster has into the forecast that's displayed (the real 'casters not the RTE2 forecasting babes!). Different 'casters seem to differ on their preferences for information displayed. One girl seems to think we are all drying clothes, one guy seems to think there's no weather ouside "the pale". Another girl spends most of the forecast telling us what the weather was like yesterday!

Gerald Fleming is the man, his forecasts are to the point and full of info.

I know it is a "forecast" and not an exact science. It has gone the other way for us as well, we've been out good distances when the wind comes up and we've had to high tail it back to the slip. That's when the possibilites get scary and someone can end up in trouble.

Rant over :)

Jim

He yeah,
the "weather heads" on the weather forum at boards.ie like Evelyn Cusack during the winter because they reckon she likes snow and will ramp up the possibilty..

Sunday was a day for the wrecks. Going on met (donky's) eireann it was'nt going to be. Spent a lot of time fri and sat getting crab,rag and lug.
Do they realise people take them on their word and plan their weekends on their forcasts. Fished last sat 24th. on what was suposed to be light winds took a pounding on the way back from the "lings". This island has over 4 million people living on it, who cares what the weather is in malta or turkey, a couple of hundred or so going on holidays whlie we stay at home hoping they get right. Have seven sites I ckeck and a lot are just copies.

Not much good to the rest of the country but we always found utv's northern Irelands weather the most accurate. We had a rule of thumb that RTE added 10mile an hour to the forecast.

Not much good to the rest of the country but we always found utv's northern Irelands weather the most accurate. We had a rule of thumb that RTE added 10mile an hour to the forecast.

Maybe the irish met go for the fastest wind speed likely from their models, just so people can't say they weren't warned..?
jd

Hi everyone.
This is a subject very close to my heart, in respect that the weather , and the forecast are a very important part of my job as a rescue chopper pilot, and part time small boat fisherman ( though some people might dispute that!)
With that in mind , we very rarely trust the RTE forecast, its great for a general , yes its going to rain today! and its going to very windy with gusts to 100km, ( at malin head, but flat calm at rosslare) etc etc.
In other words , all they give is a general forecast for the whole of Ireland, and yes, from looking at there forecasts all they give is the possible maximum gusts that you might get in that area of the country.
Predicting the winds is not a complicated art, but predicting a specific area of coast is, and Met eireann only covers a 12 hour period, ie, it may be force 2-3 for 8 hours , but if its due to increase to a force 6, thats what they will forecast and so will be the small craft warning! confusing or what.
I agree with another post that by telling everyone of the worst case , then it is a case of' we told you so'
There are some great aviation websites that give a much more accurate forecast, but one very good aspect of the met eireann site is the 'Latest weather, and the 3hour prediction, and the met bouys' Without stating the obvious, the latest weather is whats actually happening, ( i know nobody has a computer on there boat, ) but it can be great to check what exactly is going on before launching, along with the bouy reports,( of which the kinsale gas field also relays data) this is real time data which will give you wind speeds offshore( a great indication of the real wind, though it may well be flat calm at the slip!) plus more importantly it shows the wave height, to 0.1 of a meter, great if your heading on a wreck trip.
Tips i have picked up in many years at sea,
1. Very often if the wind is forecast to pick up, it often happens at the change of the tide.
2.in summer , Like now!!, we all here about sea breezes, well they can get up to force 5-6!! and with the forecast of temperatures next week to 29 deg it can happen!
A sea breeze starts as an offshore breeze early in the morning, usually because the sea is warmer than the land, these breezes never get above a 2-3.
As the day goes on, the land heats up, there wil be a spell when within approx 3 miles of the coast that the wind will become calm , then it will start to pick up blowing inshore and be at it s max strength around 3-5pm and then will drop off again.( these breezes will be affected by headlands etc)
3. It may well be calm at the start of the day, if there is some low clouds around look to see if they are moving fast, if they are it means there are some strong winds at altitude, and these will move to ground level during the morning.
Anyway, its big subject but if anyone wants a forecast for a few days ahead or even on the day, if i am at work i would gladly try and give a forecast. Just PM me, no guarentees that i will pick up the message , but i do look at my mail each day if i can.
Any questions regarding basic forecasting , i will try and give some help
regards
screeming reels

Must agree with screeming reels. On shore winds all got to do with heat convection. The sea tempeture changes very little where as the land tempture changers greatlyevery day Under the logic of convection currents heat rises so, in the morning the sea is warmer than the land, so the heat is rising from thes sea and the air is drawn from the land giving off shore winds. As the land warns the heat rises and the replacement air is drawn from the sea giving onshore winds. These convection currents seem to disappear when you get 5 or 6 miles offshore.