Long range weather forecasts..?

So im like a kid on christmas eve at the moment, just under 2 weeks to Kerry and Im trying to see what the likely weather will be. I know they usually cant tell ye whats going to happen tomorrow, but does anyone have a site thats not far off the mark with long range..?

As long as we dont get the tail end of a tropical storm or a very cold low pressure spell i'll be happy enough.

I've learned from a reliable source (the guy is a meteorologist) the utmost time for a weather prediction you can depend upon are three days at maximum - everything else is guesswork and more than likely wishful thinking. Sorry about the bad news

I heard the same thing myself..! I used to work with a guy who left to become one. Said 3 days is your lot. I have looked at a few and every one of them had different predictions.

It's the butterfly effect.

I've just learned from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect that it could have been called the "seagull effect"

I think they're getting more confident out to 5 days, but they would give a % confidence level. Not so sure the general public would be happy with that.
What I would do is look at charts from different computer models. If they are all fairly similar, I'd be a little bit more confident. 2 weeks is pushing it!
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.p ... &archive=0

Yeah, looks like nothing I can do only wait a week and then take a look.
Tnks all

met eireann quoted that all weather forecasts are accurate up to 3 days.......anything after that is geuss work as mentioned above......

Some folks advocate keeping an eye on the jetstream forecast.
If it is up over or above ireland it usually means nice settled weather.
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?acti ... ream;sess=

Nice one.